Cardano as a U.S. Reserve asset – A ‘difficult sell?’ What experts believe

币圈网报道：

• ADA’s DeFi TVL reached $448.9M in Q4 2024, far below Ethereum’s $50B dominance in the sector.
• Whale inflows dropped 97% in a week, showing weak institutional confidence and capital redistribution.

Cardano’s [ADA] name has recently surfaced in conversations about a national crypto reserve for the United States.

The idea started as a broader discussion of altcoins, but skepticism soon focused on whether ADA truly belongs in the same conversation as Bitcoin [BTC] or Ethereum [ETH].

Metrics continue to suggest that ADA might still be a step away from meeting the high standards demanded of a reserve asset.

Venture fund manager David Nage brought Cardano under the microscope by comparing its total value locked, developer activity, and presence in decentralized finance.

In his assessment, Cardano’s DeFi TVL stood at $448.9 million in Q4 2024, a fraction of Ethereum’s towering $50 billion.

While active addresses rose from 25,000 to 70,000, Cardano still accounted for just 0.4% of total DeFi TVL across all blockchains.

Nage sees this as proof that Cardano’s ecosystem, though growing, remains relatively small.

Resistance from crypto heavyweights

Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss fueled the debate by insisting,

“Bitcoin is the only asset that meets the bar for a store of value reserve asset. Maybe Ethereum.”

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong further suggested two possibilities for a national crypto reserve,

“Just Bitcoin would probably be the best option – simplest, and clear story as successor to gold. If folks wanted more variety, you could do a market cap-weighted index of crypto assets to keep it unbiased.”

The latter idea might technically include Cardano, but it also puts ADA at a disadvantage against assets with much larger market caps.

Cardano price surges and on-chain reality checks

Recent reports suggest that Cardano’s 60% price surge has fueled speculation about its long-term potential.

The trading data from late February through early March 2025 shows an extraordinary divergence in market reaction among the designated reserve assets.

Cardano’s dramatic +74.23% surge significantly outpaced all other selected cryptocurrencies.

Although market sentiment has turned bullish, on-chain indicators tell another story.

According to IntoTheBlock, Cardano’s active addresses peaked at 320,000 during the 2021/2022 bull run but now hover below 100,000.

This decline suggests the network is struggling to regain previous activity levels, raising doubts about whether its current price reflects true adoption.

Santiment’s sentiment analysis shows that much of the optimism surrounding Cardano stems from its mention in a political context rather than core developments.

Many discussions center on words such as “Trump,” “strategic,” and “reserve,” implying that external validation drives excitement.

Skeptics focus on Cardano’s actual usage and label it as “vaporware,” reflecting deeper uncertainty about its real-world utility.

Meanwhile, institutional confidence appears tepid, with large holder inflows and outflows dropping by 97% in a week.

Whales reduced their positions by 1.68% over 30 days, while mid-sized investors increased theirs by 1.60%, suggesting redistribution but not a wave of fresh capital.

Does Cardano belong in a national crypto reserve?

The inclusion of Cardano alongside Bitcoin raises fundamental questions about the selection criteria for strategic reserve assets.

Bernstein analysts have expressed doubts about expanding the reserve beyond Bitcoin, noting,

“Convincing Congress that Bitcoin is the new digital gold/global store of value” might be achievable, but “buying other blockchain assets from Fed funds or treasury funds is a difficult sell.”

The U.S. formed its Stable Act 2025 + Genius to solidify regulatory clarity in stablecoins. 

Cardano represents $22.3M of $223B or 0.0103139013% of the total stablecoin market cap, which can be contradictory enough of a statistic to add it to the reserve.

This minuscule footprint in a critical infrastructure segment raises legitimate questions about Cardano’s current readiness for reserve status.

The on-chain data substantiates that while “the ADA Army is strong,” the ecosystem still needs to develop products “that millions of people enjoy and depend on” before reserve status “begins to make more sense.” 

Current metrics suggest a significant gap between political designation and market reality that must be bridged through ecosystem development.

Bridging the expectation gap

For Cardano to align its new political status with market fundamentals, several metrics must substantially improve. Active addresses need to approach previous highs of 320,000 daily users.

Notably, Total Value Locked must grow beyond its current 0.4% market share to demonstrate meaningful capital deployment.

Similarly, stablecoin infrastructure requires expansion beyond its current 0.01% of global stablecoin market capitalization.

As David Nage concluded in his assessment, after building products that millions depend on and securing “brilliant storytellers to solidify the narrative,” then “putting ADA into a U.S. national reserve begins to make more sense.”

The on-chain data suggests Cardano has begun this journey but remains in the early stages of aligning its fundamental metrics with its newly elevated political status.